The BJP’s goal of 370 seats, according to Prashant Kishor, is a “smart” strategy that has helped them alter the conversation surrounding the election.
Political strategist Prashant Kishor believes that had the opposition not blown many opportunities to come back while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was in the minority, it would have been in a stronger position going into the Lok Sabha Elections of 2024.
Kishor stated that the BJP’s repeated defeats in state assembly elections in 2015 and 2016 was the first instance of this kind of thing.
“The Aam Aadmi Party won the Delhi assembly elections in January 2015.” That following November, the BJP was defeated in the Bihar elections. Assembly elections were held in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Assam the next year till May. Only Assam would be won by the BJP, and only then in coalition. Since PM Modi’s popularity had only started to climb (post-2014), those 15–18 months presented a chance for the Congress-led opposition to mount a comeback,” Kishor said in an interview with NDTV.
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Another opportunity that the opposition had, according to Kishor, was after 2016 demonetisation of ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes by the PM Modi-led government.
“There was a kind of turbulence in the country. You can call it economic or rural distress. The BJP won the UP assembly elections in 2017 but if you remember there was protest by Patels ahead of Gujarat elections. There were protests in Maharashtra too,” Kishor said.
That was not a good time for the BJP and PM Modi, he said. “In November 2017 Gujarat polls, the Congress, though lost, but performed well. The BJP could somehow manage to win by 15 odd seats. In the coming months, the BJP lost Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh elections. So this was another 15-17 month period from mid 2017 till end of 2018 when the BJP was on the back foot but the opposition missed the chance,” Kishor said.
Kishor said the opposition missed another opportunity in June 2021 post second Covid-19 wave when there was a dip in the Prime Minister’s approval ratings. The BJP had just lost the West Bengal state elections, then, he said.
“The last chance for the opposition was when many parties came together and former INDIA bloc in June 2023. And there was a murmur across the country that at least, we have a challenge coming up against the BJP which could have ended with 220-240 seats in 2024 elections. But for months there was no movement forward,” Kishor told NDTV.
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Kishor has predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP will return to power in Lok Sabha Elections 2024.
And I am told that the Congress predicted victory in five assembly elections in November-December 2023, which it didn’t. They though INDIA bloc would start the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 from a position of strength. And in this thought they lost the crucial 4-5 months while the BJP had already started campaigning under PM Modi. In fact, for two months after the Ram Mandir event, the opposition had almost given up. And by the time they woke up in February, it was too late,” he said.
With voting in 49 seats being held in the phase 5 on May 20, the election to 428 of the 543 seats is over. The remaining two phases will be held on May 25 and June 1. Counting votes for all seven Lok Sabha Elections phases will occur on June 4.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), seeking a record third term under PM Narendra Modi, has set a target of winning 400 seats this election. The ruling alliance is challenged by the opposition parties led by the Congress under the banner of the INDIA bloc.
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