If Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar joins hands with the BJP, it will be for his political survival. For the BJP, the JD(U) leader is an opportunity not only to boost its winnability in the 2024 Lok Sabha election but to demolish the INDIA bloc.
The Bihar Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) is as good as gone. As it gasps, stars seem to have aligned for JD(U) leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s return to the BJP-led NDA.
If Nitish Kumar, left without many options, survives with his party and chief minister’s post by joining hands with the BJP. It is the BJP that will emerge as the real winner.
In fact, getting Nitish Kumar on its side will be a multibagger for the BJP.
It brings back the BJP in the game in Bihar, brightens its chances of multiplying its seats in Bihar in the 2024 general elections, and, most importantly, deals a body blow to the INDIA bloc at the national level.
Bihar watchers IndiaToday.In spoke to all agreed that Bihar was in a state of churn, and it was most likely that Nitish Kumar would rejoin the BJP. It’s just a year-and-a half that Nitish had deserted the BJP for the RJD-Congress alliance.
SCOPE OF POLITICAL EQUATIONS IN BIHAR
Some sources have even delivered a date for the swearing-in of the new BJP-JD(U) government. They told India Today TV that on Sunday (January 28), Nitish Kumar was likely to take oath as the head of the new alliance government in Bihar. BJP veteran Sushil Modi is likely to be the new deputy minister, they said.
The position of the parties in Bihar is such that it allows a lot of room for backdoor negotiations and scheming.
Lau Yadav’s RJD is the biggest party with 79 MLAs, while the BJP has 78 MLAs. Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) has 45 MLAs and the Congress 19. The Left parties have 14 seats.
In the 243-member Assembly, the mahagathbandhan has 160 MLAs.
Hindustan Awam Morcha (Secular), which has four MLAs, is with the BJP. With the JD(U), the BJP and the HAM (S) can easily cross the magic figure of 122.
One needs to understand the plight of Nitish Kumar. He is a chief minister with just 45 MLAs in a 243-member House. There are two bigger parties in the state than his JD(U). There’s always the risk of being outmaneouvered, and MLAs being snatched.
There were reports that the RJD was scheming to engineer a split in the JD(U) and form a government with Tejashwi Yadav as the chief minister. He was counting support from other mahagathbandhan parties.
Nitish Kumar was stuck in a political quicksand. And his outstretched hand met the BJP’s.
HOW NITISH KUMAR IS A PRIZE CATCH FOR BJP
“Most likely Nitish Kumar will be the chief minister and the BJP will have deputy CMs, it is an old formula,” one of the Bihar watchers told IndiaToday.in.
The BJP gets to be in power in yet another state before the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha election. This not only is an image booster, it also boosts its chances of winnability.
“It is a tried and tested combination for the BJP. It won 39 seats fighting with Nitish Kumar,” says Santosh Singh, senior journalist with The Indian Express. “The BJP and JD(U) have done well together in three Lok Sabha elections,” adds Patna-based Singh.
Bihar sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha
The BJP’s vote conversion has been very good with Nitish Kumar. The immediate gain for the BJP [in getting Nitish Kumar back] will be in the Lok Sabha election,” says Santosh Singh.
The BJP was, anyway, in a comfortable position when it came to the Hindi heartland states. Its combination of kamandal planks has blunted Mandal politics. It still can’t take chances.
The most important aspect of reeling in Nitish Kumar will be that the BJP would have demolished whatever remains of the Congress-led Opposition’s INDIA bloc.
The pre-poll alliance talks have already crumbled in Bengal and Punjab.
If Nitish Kumar leaves the Opposition grouping and joins the BJP, it will be big in terms of discrediting the INDIA grouping because it was the Bihar Chief Minister who engaged in marathon meetings to put the rainbow coalition together.
Nitish Kumar leaving will take the wind off INDIA bloc’s sails. The knives are already out for the Congress, with Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav blaming it for the alliance’s mess.
From getting into the Bihar government, to boosting winnability in the 2024 elections to demolishing INDIA, Nitish Kumar is that goose that will lay multiple golden eggs for the BJP.
This Article is originally published on India today.
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