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Today’s Stock Market Trading Guide: Dow Jones, Gift Nifty, and Go Digit IPO.

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Everything you should know before Friday’s Gift Nifty Live market opening is: Present Nifty signals a sluggish start; Fed officials advise against rate-cut bets as global markets decline; Today is Go Digit IPO closure; The market opens on Saturday.

Pre-market stock update for May 17, Friday: Volatility is likely to remain an order of the day for the Indian equity market as we near the conclusion of the Lok Sabha elections. That apart, global news and FII flow also weigh on the trading sentiment. 

After yesterday’s extremely volatile session, the Nifty will likely open marginally lower this morning as the global mood seems tepid. At 07:00 AM, Gift Nifty futures quoted at 22,480, suggesting a likely marginal dip on the Nifty 50 index.

Also Read M&M Shares Hit Fresh 52-Week High on Complete Stake Sale in New Delhi Centre for Sight for ₹425 Crore.

Global markets

Overnight, the US market ended off record highs after several Federal officials warned that the central bank still needed more confidence to cut interest rates and that the timing of the move remained uncertain.

Vodafone Idea Ltd

Dow Jones crossed the 40,000 mark in intra-day deals, but eventually settled at 39,869, down 0.1 percent. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped 0.2 percent each.

The US 10-year bond yield remained subdued around 4.365 per cent, near about five week lows. Among commodities, Gold futures eased back to $2,380 levels, while Brent Crude Oil continued to hover around $83 per barrel.

Equity markets in the Asia Pacific region were all in red this morning. Japan’s Nikkei declined 0.8 percent. The Australian benchmark indices fell 0.4 percent, and Malaysia’s Kospi was down 0.3 percent.

Trading strategy for Friday, May 17 – Should you be a buyer or seller today? Here’s what market experts recommend:

On the technical front, the 22,300 zone is likely to cushion upcoming blips, while 22,200-22,100 is likely to act as the next support zone for Nifty, said – Osho Krishan, Sr. Analyst – Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One.

On the higher end, 22,500-22,600 is very much in the vicinity of the bulls, especially with the kind of momentum seen on the weekly settlement session, the analyst added.

Neeraj Sharma, AVP of Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates too believe that the Nifty could rally to 22,500–22,600 levels in the near term. The analyst said, technically, the Nifty has surpassed the hurdle of 22,310, where the 21-day exponential moving average (21-DEMA) was placed and managed to close above it, indicating strength. Also Read Gift Nifty Live, Global Markets Hint Gap-Up Open on May 16; FIIs Trade in Focus.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities recommends that the over the next few days, the bulls might have the upper hand in the market as the Nifty moved above the critical moving average after several days. On the higher side, the Nifty might move towards 22,600 in the short term. Support on the lower end remains at 22,250.

Stocks in focus

Among individual stocks, Vodafone Idea will be in focus after the telecom major said it loss widened to Rs 7,674 crore in the March 2024 quarter. Gail India too will see some action after the company reported near 3-fold jump in net profit at Rs 2,469 crore.

On Friday, Amber Enterprises, Atul Auto, Balkrishna Industries, Balrampur Chini, Bandhan Bank, Delhivery, GlaxoSmithKline Pharma, Godrej Industries, JB Chemicals, JSW Steel, LT Foods, NHPC, Pfizer, The Phoenix Mills, Polyplex Corporation, RCF, Rail Vikas Nigam (RVNL), Shipping Corporation of India, Shalimar Paints, Sobha, TV Today, Gift Nifty Live Universal Cables, Zee Entertainment and Zydus Lifesciences are scheduled to announce Q4 results.

Primary Market Update

Go Digit General Insurance IPO closes today. The issue was subscribed up to 79 per cent as of yesterday. Subscription is open in the price range of Rs 258 – Rs 272 per share. Should you subscribe? 

Other news
Lastly, today is not the final trading session of the week as equity market will be open for normal trading tomorrow May 18, Saturday in special session. The stock exchanges are conducting this trading session to check their preparedness to handle major disruption or failure, if any, at the primary site.

Trading will be in two sessions, the first session will be from 9:15 am – 10 am on the primary site, followed shift in trading to Disaster Recovery Site (DRS) from 11:30 am – 12:30 pm.

Gift Nifty, Global Markets Hint Gap-Up Open on May 16; FIIs Trade in Focus.

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Pre-market stock update on Thursday, May 16:With an emphasis on FII inflows after US rates dropped to 5-week lows, equity markets in India are anticipated to follow strong foreign signals and trade on a positive note today.
Gift Nifty futures opened at 22,380 at 7:00 AM, indicating a probable 70-point gap-up on the Nifty 50 index.

Global Markets

The US market closed at all-time highs overnight as statistics revealed that US consumer prices increased less than anticipated in April, indicating that inflation has started to decline in the second quarter. According to the data, there could be many interest rate reductions in 2024.
In April, the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.3%, less than the 0.4% increase that was anticipated. The figure indicates a slowdown in domestic demand, which US central bank officials are probably happy to hear as they work to facilitate a “soft-landing” for the economy.

Following which, all three indices closed at new life-time highs. Dow Jones jumped 0.9 per cent. The S&P 500 rose 1.2 per cent, and Nasdaq soared 1.4 per cent.

The US 10-year bond yield eased to 4.32 per cent, its lowest level in the last five weeks. Among commodities, Gold futures jumped back to $2,400 levels, while Brent Crude Oil hovered around $83 per barrel.

Mirroring the cues from the US peers, the Australian and Malaysian stock benchmark indices surged over 1 per cent each this morning. Taiwan too was up 0.8 per cent. Japan’s Nikkei held a 0.6 per cent gain even as data showed that its economy shrank more than expected in Q12024 hit by slowdown in consumer spending and sticky inflation.

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Domestic Cues

Thursday’s FII flows will be closely watched after a decline in US yields. In the derivatives market, the FIIs are said to have built big short positions and have been active sellers thus far in May. On Wednesday, the DIIs net bought shares worth Rs 3,788 crore, while the FIIs net sold equities worth Rs 2,833 crore.

The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued to aggressively build short positions in Index futures. The long short ratio on 14th May stood at 30.46 per cent, said Ashwin Ramani, Derivatives & Technical Analyst of SAMCO Securities in a note.

Foreign investors are the most pessimistic in over a decade on Indian stocks amid speculation over Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party winning fewer seats in the ongoing national elections than previously estimated.

Net short positions – measured as the difference between the number of index futures contracts on which global funds are long to those on which they hold a short position – surged to 213,224 contracts, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. The gap is the widest since data going back to 2012. Among individual stocks, shares of oil & gas producers & explorers will be in focus on Thursday after the government, in its bi-weekly review, cut the windfall tax on petroleum crude to Rs 5,700 per metric tonne from Rs 8,400. The tax remained unchanged at zero for diesel and aviation turbine fuel.

That apart, shares of Biocon, Container Corporation of India, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, DCW, eClerx Services, Endurance Technologies, Gail India, Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), Vodafone Idea, Indian Hume Pipe, Indoco Remedies, JK Paper, Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences (KIMS), Kopran, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Info Edge (Naukri), Prism Johnson, Sanghvi Movers, Solar Industries, Texmaco Rail, V-Guard and Wonderala Holidays are likely to be on investors radar ahead of Q4 results today.

Also Read TBO Tek Share Price Makes a Bumper Debut, Stock Opens with 55% Premium at ₹1,426 Piece on NSE.

Trading strategy for Thursday, May 16 – Should you be a buyer or seller today? Here’s what market experts recommend:

Ashwin Ramani of SAMCO Securities states that the support level of 22,200 which earlier acted as a strong support for Nifty, is acting as resistance now. The Nifty has failed to aggressively close above the channel support level convincingly in the last two trading sessions. The call writers (Bears) have sizeable positions at the 22,200 Strike and the option activity at this strike will provide cues about Nifty’s Intraday direction ahead of the weekly expiry today.

Om Mehra, Technical Analyst of SAMCO Securities cautions, that the Nifty is forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern on the hourly chart, with the neckline remaining around 22,320; if crossed, expect a potential rally towards the 22,450-22,500 range.

On the downside, immediate support for the Nifty is seen at the 22,080 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hover below the 50 mark, signalling short-term weakness in the market, the analyst added.

Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates also highlights that technically, on the daily scale, the Nifty has encountered resistance near the 22,300 levels, where the 21-Days exponential moving average (21-DEMA) is placed. As long as the Nifty remains below the 22,300 levels, we expect the index to consolidate in the range of 22,000-22,300. 

Despite the fall on Wednesday, the Bank Nifty is still respecting a bullish engulfing candle, indicating strength. As long as the Bank Nifty remains above 46,983, the bullish momentum will continue. On the upside, the 21-DEMA is placed near 48,060, which will serve as the first hurdle for the index, followed by 48,500, Hrishikesh said in his note.

Sentiment remains subdued as long as it stays below 22,250. A decisive move beyond this level could potentially propel Gift Nifty towards 22,600 and beyond. Conversely, a failure to sustain above 22,200 might invite selling pressure in the market, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

Stock Market Highlights, April 10: Sensex gains 354 points, Nifty stays at 22,750; larger indices perform!

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Stock Market Closing Bell on April 10, 2024: Equity markets were rangebound with a positive bias on Wednesday as investors await fresh triggers for directional moves. The S&P BSE Sensex ended with gains of 354 points, or 0.47 percent, at 75,038 levels, while the Nifty50 closed at 22,754, up 111 points or 0.49 percent.

ITC, Kotak Bank, SBI, Tech M, Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, JSW Steel, Infosys, and Reliance Industries were the top winners on the 30-stock index, rising between 1 percent and 2 percent.

Meanwhile, in the broader markets, outperformed the market with the BSE MidCap index and the BSE SmallCap index advancing 0.89 percent and 0.46 percent, respectively. 

Among sectors, the Nifty PSU Bank, FMCG, Media, and Metal indices gained in the range of 1.23 percent to 1.80 percent, while Pharma and Auto indices ended in the red.

Tech View:: ‘Decisive move above 22,750 in Nifty might induce a rally towards 23,000’

The Nifty mostly remained sideways today as investors preferred to wait ahead of the US CPI inflation data, which could potentially impact rate cuts by the Fed. The resistance zone is placed at 22,700-22,750, while support is at 22,600. A decisive move above 22,750 might induce a rally towards 23,000 in the short term. Since the market appears to be range-bound, buying on dips and selling on rallies might prove to be a good strategy with proper stop-loss measures.

Comment :: ‘Investors remain fixated on impending release of the FOMC minutes, US inflation data’

Indian markets sustained their upward momentum, buoyed by a robust performance in the broader market, albeit slightly lagging behind its Asian and European counterparts. Investor attention remains fixated on the impending release of the FOMC minutes and US inflation data later today. Following the release of strong US job data, market sentiments are inclined towards an anticipation of spike inflation, thereby reducing the likelihood of a near-term rate cut. Additionally, Fitch’s recent downgrade of China’s credit rating could potentially reverberate through the global economy, warranting a caution.

Currency check:: Rupee gains 12 paise vs US dollar, ends at 83.19/$

Broader markets :: MidCap index adds nearly 1%

Sectoral trends :: Nifty PSU Bank, Media rally up to 1.8%

Sensex Heatmap:: ITC, SBI, and Airtel end as top gainers on the 30-stock index

Closing Bell:: Nifty holds 22,750

Closing Bell:: Sensex ends 354 pts higher ahead of US CPI data

Vodafone Idea stock may more than half amid subscriber churn: CLSA

“Beyond the planned capital expenditure and 5G rollout, Vi faces a financial crunch in FY26CL. Annual spectrum and AGR payments of $4 billion per annum will fall due unless the government converts debt principal to equity at the end of the moratorium,” CLSA said in its latest report.

Tata Motors-owned JLR India sales rise 81% at 4,436 units in FY24

Retail sales of SUVs, Range Rover, and Defender continued to grow with year-on-year increases of 160% and 120% respectively.

JLR

Vodafone Idea to launch FPO next week seeks to raise Rs 18,000-20,000 cr

Vodafone Idea (Vi) is preparing to launch a follow-on public offer (FPO) to raise Rs 18,000-20,000 crore by the middle of next week, reported Moneycontrol, citing sources.

Vodafone Idea

Q4 Preview: TCS to lead IT pack; may see upper single-digit rise in profit

Large-cap IT major TCS is expected to register a single-digit growth in revenue and profit for the January-March quarter (Q4FY24) as compared to the same quarter in the year-ago period due to large deal ramp-ups and operational efficiencies, said analysts.

Beware of deep fake of CEO recommending stocks, says National Stock Exchange

India’s National Stock Exchange (NSE) on Wednesday cautioned investors against deepfake videos of its chief executive giving stock recommendations. 

RInfra tanks 20% as SC asks co to refund Rs 8,000 cr to Delhi Airport Metro

Shares of Reliance Infrastructure (R-Infra) tanked 20 percent to Rs 227.40, freezing at the lower circuit on the BSE on Wednesday at 01:28 PM, amid heavy volumes after the Supreme Court (SC) set aside the Rs 8,000-crore arbitral award in favor of the company’s metro arm, Delhi Airport Metro Express Private Limited (DAMEPL).

Summer cheer for beer firm United Breweries as margins remain stable

United Breweries, India’s largest beer manufacturer, is expected to gain business as summer brings heat waves. The company will be a major beneficiary from April to July, the period that contributes 40-45 percent of its annual beer volumes. The T20 Cricket World Cup in June and the ongoing Indian Premier League will help volumes and should offset the negative impact of elections on sales. 

Rotation into large-caps could continue ahead of elections: Ritu Arora

Indian markets have rebounded sharply from their lows in mid-March with the Sensex crossing the 75,000 mark for the first time this week. RITU ARORA, chief executive officer and chief investment officer for Asia at Allianz Investment Management, tells Puneet Wadhwa in an email interview that the Indian markets will witness periodic corrections and provide better entry opportunities over the next year. 

Kolte Patil zooms 10% as Motilal Oswal gives a ‘Buy’ rating, 34% upside eyed

Shares of the company soared as much as 10.05 percent to hit an intraday high of Rs 569.05 per share after Motilal Oswal initiated coverage on the real estate developer.

SC sets aside Rs 8,000 cr arbitral award to Anil Ambani’s Reliance Infra

In a significant relief to the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC), the Supreme Court on Wednesday set aside the Rs 8,000 crore arbitral award in favor of Anil Ambani-owned Reliance Infrastructure’s metro arm, Delhi Airport Metro Express Private Limited (DAMEPL).

KSB rallies 5% as board to consider stock split; stock up 98% in 1 year

The company’s board is scheduled to meet on April 26 to consider the proposal for sub-division/split of equity shares and also announce the March quarter results.

Global check:: Hang Seng surges 1.8% in mixed trade in Asia

chart

Will India be the world’s next growth driver as its economic growth speeds up?

With China’s growth slowing, India could become the new engine of global economic growth, but it will take strategic investments, increased labor participation, and more to achieve its ambitions.

Explained: Silver prices may touch Rs 1 lakh, should you invest?

Motilal Oswal has cited several factors driving silver prices, including strong demand from the industrial sector (electronics, solar) and its role as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainties. 

Motilal Oswal trims price target on TaMo, sees 4% downside, Here’s why

MOFSL said the revised price highlights expectations of stabilizing growth shortly due to moderate volume growth in domestic passenger and commercial vehicle industries.

Vistara’s loss may not be IndiGo’s gain; oil remains an overhang: Analysts

Surging oil prices, according to analysts, could hit the airline if the government decides to hike the prices of aviation turbine fuel (ATF). 

Fitch downgrades China’s outlook to negative on economic growth risks

China’s factory output and retail sales topped forecasts in January-February, joining better-than-expected exports and consumer inflation indicators, providing an early boost to Beijing’s hopes. 

Gold can rise 5% to Rs 75,000; Silver by 2.5% to Rs 85,000, charts suggest

Commodities such as Gold and Silver have rallied sharply in the last two weeks amid a rise in geopolitical crisis and hopes of interest rate cuts in the US.

Gold futures in the international market rallied from $2,170 per ounce to $2,384 per ounce – up 9.9 percent in the last three weeks. Meanwhile, Silver futures outperformed with a gain of 16 percent during the same period. 

Vedanta soars 8%, hits 23-month high on heavy volumes; zooms 45% in 4 weeks

The company is favorably positioned to capitalize on the commodity upcycle, thanks to its diversified exposure. Moreover, its ongoing efforts to enhance capacity and profitability across various segments bode well for prospects, as per reports.

ALERT:: Kolte Patil zooms over 7% as MOFSL initiates coverage

>> With the scale-up in operations, we expect post-tax OCF to double to INR8b by FY26. Further, the net cash position as of Dec’23 also provides comfort and ample headroom to capitalize on future growth opportunities. We initiate coverage on the stock with a BUY rating and a TP of INR700, implying a 34% upside.

ALERT:: Gensol Engineering reports an order book of Rs 1,783 crore at the start of FY25

PB Fintech surges 7%, hits 2-year high on pact with ICICI Lombard

Stocks of PB Fintech are trading at their highest level since November 2021. It had hit a record high of Rs 1,470 on November 17, 2021. At 09:21 am, the stock was trading 5 percent higher at Rs 1,369.85, as compared to the 0.33 percent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. On the other hand, shares of ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company were quoting 1 percent higher at Rs 1,713 on the BSE.

Weak demand environment to delay recovery in quick-service restaurants

While competition is intense, growth has seen non-vegetarian options starting to outpace vegetarian. KFC, for example, has an 85 percent contribution from non-vegetarians. Popeyes, with a launch in South India, is creating a new category in fried chicken.

Comment :: Here’s what could keep markets resilient

Robust economic growth, decent corporate earnings, macroeconomic stability, expectations of political stability after elections, sustained capital flows, and retail investor enthusiasm will keep the market resilient despite rich valuations.

A significant recent healthy trend in the market is the outperformance of the fundamentally strong large caps over the mid and small caps. This trend is making the market healthier and, therefore, has the potential to continue. Largecap banking stocks are likely to be the leaders if the rally sustains.

The US CPI data to be published today is significant since that will determine the quantum of rate cuts by the Fed this year. The fact that US inflation has come down by two-thirds is significant and positive from the market perspective, but the trajectory of inflation, going forward, will largely influence the direction of stock markets, globally.

Paisalo Digital gains over 3.5% on a 32% YoY rise in AUM

>> The company reported that its Assets Under Management (AUM) saw a 32 percent growth, reaching Rs 4,622 crore by the end of the March FY24 quarter.

>> In the same period, disbursements rose by 38 percent to Rs 3,588 crore

Shyam Metalics advances 3% as it plans Rs 750-cr capex

>> The metals manufacturing firm will set up a new facility for the production of stainless steel hot rolled coils (HRC) at its existing plant in Sambalpur, Odisha with an investment of Rs 650 to Rs 750 crore

Protean eGov Technologies zooms about 3% as Co to likely launch QIP

>> Reports say the QIP offering is set to include a base issue size of Rs 170 crore along with a green shoe option of Rs 75 crore

Godrej Properties flat after Gurugram unit of RERA denies project extension

>>  The Real Estate Regulatory Authority in Gurugram has denied the extension application for the Godrej Air Phase 4 project, a group housing project being developed by Godrej Properties in Sector 85, Gurugram. 

Lupin gains over 1% on launching first generic version of Oracea

>> The pharma major announced the launch of the first generic version of Oracea (doxycycline capsules 40 mg) in the US. 

Paytm falls 3% as PPBL MD & CEO resigns

>> Surinder Chawla, MD and CEO of Paytm Payments Bank has resigned ‘on account of personal reasons’

Broader markets:: SmallCap index trades flat

Sectoral trends:: Private banks see a slight downtick

Sensex Heatmap:: 26 of 30 index stocks rise led by Tata Steel, RIL

Opening Bell:: Nifty tests 22,700


Opening Bell:: Sensex up less than 200 pts

Pre-Open Session:: Nifty holds 22,700

Pre-Open Session:: Sensex gains over 250 pts

Betting big: Mutual funds own a larger slice of small and midcap stocks

Retail investors now own a larger share of smallcap companies than they did a year ago, thanks to their conviction in mutual fund (MF) schemes focused on this segment.

Data from Capitaline shows that MFs’ average holding in the National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 250 Index stood at 9 percent at the end of the October-December quarter of 2023-24 (FY24), up from 7.76 percent in the same quarter of 2022-23.

Mutual funds’ growing heft

Gold price climbs Rs 10 to reach Rs 71,740, silver slips to Rs 84,400

The price of 24-carat gold registered a slight uptick of Rs 10 in early trade on Wednesday, with ten grams of the precious metal trading at Rs 71,740, according to the GoodReturns website. The price of silver, on the other hand, went down by Rs 100, with one kilogram of the precious metal selling at Rs 84,400.

The price of 22-carat gold rose Rs 10 with the yellow metal selling at Rs 65,760.

gold investment gold trade

ICICI Bank, Eicher Motors can zoom up to 6-7% says HDFC Securities

Buy Eicher Motors(CMP-4,250): | Target Rs. 4,550 | Stop-loss Rs 4,050

By surpassing the previous swing high of 4,200, the Stock has registered a fresh all-time at 4,303. The primary trend of the stock is bullish, as it has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the weekly charts. The auto sector has been outperforming for the last couple of weeks. 

Nifty Private Bank nearing correction: Here’s what the charts indicate

Nifty Bank Index

The Nifty Bank Index is currently trading at 48,730.55, exhibiting a bullish short-term trend on the charts. However, in the near term, the index is anticipated to encounter resistance levels, potentially leading to profit booking as the rally progresses. 

Stocks to Watch today: Paytm, Maruti, ICICI Lombard, Lupin, PolicyBazaar

Here are the stocks that are expected to be on investors’ radar this Wednesday.

Maruti: The auto major on Tuesday said it has added a new assembly line at its plant in Manesar, Haryana, which has increased the company’s total manufacturing capacity from 2.25 million units to 2.35 million units.

Paytm: Surinder Chawla, MD and CEO of Paytm Payments Bank has resigned ‘on account of personal reasons’, the company said in a regulatory filing yesterday. The resignation would be effective from June 26. 

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Rupee depreciates 2 paise

Brent crude at $89.56 per bbl

Gift Nifty futures suggest a positive start

At 07:15 AM, the Gift Nifty futures were quoting 80 points higher than Nifty 50 futures at 22,815.

Also Read: The message-writing part of Google Messages has been modified!

Asian markets trading lower on Wednesday morning

US indices end flattish

Good morning readers! Catch all the market live updates here

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