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Pre-Market: May 14 Focus will be on Gift Nifty, Q4 Earnings, and Inflation Statistics.

Here is all the information you require prior to the market opening on Tuesday, May 14: Gift Nifty points to a robust beginning; Zomato shares will react to Q4 Earnings; Keep an eye out for these pivotal Bank Nifty and Nifty levels.

Pre-market stock update for May 14, Tuesday:Aided by the sharp intraday rally yesterday, the NSE Nifty 50 managed to survive above the 100-DMA (Daily Moving Average) for the third straight trading session. 

The market may look to build-up on the gains, amid supportive cues from Asian peers. The focus, however, will be on the inflation data in India and the US, followed by the US Fed chief Jerome Powell speech.

Retail inflation in India eased to 4.83 per cent in April, even as food prices continued to surge. The data was release on Monday, post market hours. 

Akhil Mittal, Senior Fund Manager-Fixed Income, Tata Asset Management said the CPI numbers were in line with expectations, and hence may not have any material impact on policy / markets.

At 07:00 AM, Gift Nifty futures quoted at 22,239, suggesting a mildly positive start on the Nifty 50.

Among individual stocks Zomato will be in focus after the company posted its fourth straight quarterly net profit. 

That apart, shares of Archean Chemical, AIA Engineering, Andhra Paper, Apar Industries, Apollo Tyres, Aurionpro Solutions, Bajaj Electricals, BASF  India, Bharti Airtel, Bharti Hexacom, BLS International, Butterfly Gandhimathi, Colgate Palmolive, Devyani International, Edelweiss Financial Services, Ganesh Housing Corporation, HP Adhesives, Ideaforge Technology, Jubilant Ingrevia, Kirloskar Brothers, Man Infraconstruction, Mirco Electronics, Oberoi Realty, OnMobile Global, Patanjali Foods, PVR  Inox, Radico Khaitan, Shree Cement, Siemens, Thyrocare Technologies and Zydus Wellness will be in focus as these companies announce Q4 results today.

Trading strategy for Tuesday, May 14 – Should you be a buyer or seller today? Here’s what market experts recommend:

Osho Krishan, Sr. Analyst – Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One recommends to remain cautious amidst the rise in volatility, which may be deceptive and could trap traders on either side. He adds that traders should refrain from aggressive overnight bets, and maintain exclusivity with stock selection.

On the level-specific front, Osho expects support for the Nifty around 22,000 – 21,900, followed by the sacrosanct support of the 89-DEMA around 21,800 zone. At the higher end, 22,200-22,300 is likely to act as intermediate resistance, and a sustainable surpass could only trigger a fresh round of longs in the system.

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Analysing the F&O data, Ashwin Ramani, Derivatives & Technical Analyst of SAMCO Securities, reveals that both the 21,800 & 21,900 Strikes saw strong put writing. The Nifty has formed a hammer pattern on the daily chart, which is considered to be a bullish reversal signal. If call writers (Bears) exit from the 22,000 Strike, then Nifty is likely to move higher.

Echoing similar terms, Om Mehra, Technical Analyst of SAMCO Securities, said the Nifty has formed a hammer candlestick pattern at the support of its rising trendline on the daily chart, signaling a potential reversal. 

The Nifty may trade within a broader range of 21,950 to 22,250 in the coming sessions. While the Nifty closed above its 100-day Moving Average (DMA), but needs to close above the crucial level of 22,300, to confirm a bullish stance to continue, Om Mehra added.

Bank Nifty halted its eight-session losing streak, showing resilience as it formed a morning star pattern on the hourly chart and rebound from lower levels, closing the session at 47,754. Currently, Bank Nifty is positioned near a crucial rising trendline. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46 levels. Immediate resistance remains at 48,000; if crossed, we expect a rally till 48,250-48,300, the analyst concluded in the note.

Similarly, Neeraj Sharma, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates suggested that as per the hammer candlestick pattern, as long as the Nifty holds the support of 21,820, the relief rally will continue. The 21-DEMA is placed near 22,315, which will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. Thus, for the short term, we expect a pullback towards 22,300 levels. If the index sustains above 22,315, the pullback rally might test 22,500 levels.

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Global markets

Overnight, the US market ended little changed with the Dow Jones snapping its seven-day rally as investors awaited US inflation data and Fed chair Powell speech.

The yield on benchmark the US 10-year notes fell 1.6 basis points to 4.489 per cent. 

This morning in Asia, Nikkei and Taiwan gained over 0.5 per cent each. Kospi was flat. The Bank of Japan on Monday sent a hawkish signal to markets by cutting the amount of Japanese government bonds it offered to buy in a regular operation.

Coforge share price declines 9% post-Q4 earnings performance: Should you sell or Hold the stock?

Stock Market Today: The Coforge share price Ltd was corrected by more than 9% during the morning trades on Friday. The company posted Q4 earnings performance on Thursday post-market hours

Stock Market Today: During Friday’s morning trading, Coforge Ltd.’s share price had a correction of over 9%. Coforge Ltd. released its Q4 financial results after market hours on Thursday.

For the quarter that ended in March of 2024, Coforge recorded a 95% increase in net profit to ₹224 crore. Consolidated sales for the three months ending March 31 rose 8.7% year over year to ₹2,359 crore.

However, the performance fell short of some experts’ projections.

In response to the results, analysts at Jefferies India Pvt Ltd stated that the performance was below average overall.

Jefferies downgrades ratings 

Coforge’s 4QFY24 revenues of US$287 million (rising 1.9% sequentially in constant currency terms), a 65bps sequential rise in EBITDA margins, and normalized profit of Rs2.3 billion, all were both below expectations, said analysts at Jefferies.

The main negative surprise in the results was the slower-than-expected margin expansion as per Jefferies. Top-5 customers and Banking Financial Services (up 6.4% sequentially) were the primary drivers of revenue growth.

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At $775 million, Coforge’s fresh order intake was robust, bolstered by two significant agreements. However, a significant negative surprise was that Coforge did not provide growth guidance for FY25 which as per analysts at Jefferies implies increased demand uncertainty.

Amid moderating growth and repeated disappointment on margins, a large acquisition as per Jefferies adds another layer of execution risk, warranting a derating. Coforge has signed a definitive agreement to take over Cigniti Technologies Limited.

Besides an Imminent QIP should be an overhang, too as per Jefferies who have cut their earnings estimates by 11-16% and lowered their target price to Rs4,290 based on 20 times price to earnings valuations and hence have downgrade rating to underperform

Coforge share price

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Antique Stock Broking cuts target price

Analysts at Antique Stock Broking have lowered Coforge’s target price to ₹6,200 (from ₹6,900 earlier) as have lowered their forward valuation (price to earnings) multiples to 30 times (from 32 times earlier) due to the reduced near-term growth outlook. They expect some slowdown in Coforge’s growth in FY25 after reporting strong double-digit growth in FY24. 

PhillipCapital Institutional Equity Research remains optimistic about the FY25 Outlook and maintains a Buy Rating

Phillip Capital in their post-result report said that they now value Coforge at 28 times FY26 EPS (versus 30 times earlier) on lower margins. Their Price target stands at ₹6030 (versus ₹7110 earlier)

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A strong order intake year to date, a strong 12-month executable order book, a healthy large deal pipeline, and a travel vertical (18% of revenue) rebounding after weak FY24 performance, should help Coforge’s growth to remain in the leader’s quadrant, believe analysts at PhillipCapital. 

Analysts at PhillipCapital said that Prima facie the acquisition seems to fill in the portfolio gaps within Coforge, however successful integration will be key given the size (20% of Coforge Revenue).